The transaction center for spot polysilicon shifted upward, and wafer offers were gradually accepted. [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM December 31:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices held steady this week, with the average price of Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal at approximately 855 yuan/mt, the price range of caking silicon coal at approximately 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price of Shaanxi silicon coal at approximately 880 yuan/mt, the average price of Inner Mongolia silicon coal at approximately 1,260 yuan/mt, the average price of Gansu silicon mixed coal at approximately 930 yuan/mt, and the average price of pellet coal at approximately 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: The supply side maintained a pace of producing based on sales and scheduled orders, but operating rates declined amid weak downstream demand.

Demand: Current procurement was primarily for rigid demand. Additionally, winter stockpiling plans were largely completed at some silicon plants in certain regions, affected by local weather conditions.

Silicon Metal

Price: Spot silicon metal prices were stagnant, while futures prices held up well. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt. Futures showed strength, with the most-traded silicon contract closing at 8,915 yuan/mt yesterday, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous day, mainly driven by market sentiment and expectations for production cuts at silicon enterprises in Xinjiang. In the spot market, downstream users primarily purchased as needed, with general transaction atmosphere.

Production:

Some silicon enterprises recently implemented production cuts, and the weekly operating rate for silicon metal weakened WoW.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM data, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 555,000 mt on December 25, increasing by 2,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price yesterday was 13,500-13,700 yuan/mt, flat WoW. The overall market transaction atmosphere improved somewhat, but procurement volume remained primarily for rigid demand, with bulk restocking not yet evident. As previously held low-cost raw material inventories are gradually consumed, and coupled with the approaching year-end procurement window, overall procurement demand is expected to be continuously released, and the back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream in the market are expected to intensify.

D4: The quotation yesterday was 13,600-14,300 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Raw Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,300-14,700 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone Oil: The quotation yesterday was 15,000-15,500 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Under the supervision and implementation of emission reduction policies, the current overall industry operating rate for monomer enterprises is approximately 65.85%.

Inventory:

As the delivery of previously sold and scheduled orders nears completion, inventory at some monomer enterprises showed a slight accumulation.

Polysilicon

Price:

The quoted price for polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was 50-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon was 49-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index was 52.35 yuan/kg. Following the emergence of high-price quotations in the earlier market and combined with downstream price increases, upstream sentiment was somewhat boosted, leading to a sustained upward shift in the transaction price center, along with sporadic small-volume transactions at high prices. The overall transaction volume in the current market is limited, and subsequent mainstream transaction prices need to be observed.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in December was expected to be 115,500 mt, primarily due to production cuts in the Inner Mongolia region. Production cuts were expected at 4-5 enterprises in January, though most were minor reductions, suggesting polysilicon supply may still face some pressure.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory increased again this week. The current market is relatively chaotic, with some slightly higher-priced resources seeing limited transactions, but the overall volume is small, and polysilicon inventory continued to rise.

Wafer

Price

The market price for 18X wafers was 1.3-1.4 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers was 1.4-1.5 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers was 1.6-1.7 yuan/piece. New round quotations were gradually transacted before the holiday, with orders in the low-price range showing a rapid convergence trend. Wafer enterprise profits improved significantly in the current month.

Production

The final production schedule for wafers in December decreased by approximately 19% MoM, with production hitting a new annual low, indicating a significant supply contraction. Production schedule plans for January showed divergence among several integrated and specialized enterprises, with the overall January production schedule raised slightly.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory shifted to destocking, and supply became slightly tight after significant production cuts. Solar cell plants continued stockpiling and restocking. Total wafer inventory is now near a reasonable level.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

The current domestic price for inner-layer sand is 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, for middle-layer sand is 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and for outer-layer sand is 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. The price for imported high-purity quartz sand is 76,000-78,000 yuan/mt. The price for a 33-inch quartz crucible is 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and for a 36-inch quartz crucible is 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent negotiations for imported sand remained in a stalemate.

Production

Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises finalized a MoM production cut of approximately 19% in December, basically matching the wafer production cut. Based on the preliminary production schedule determined for January, quartz sand enterprises will continue minor production cuts in January.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly, while purchase volumes by crucible enterprises decreased.